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23 Jan 2024 - 10k Words | January 2024

By: Equitable Investors

10k Words

Equitable Investors

January 2024


Will Australian consumers join the upswing in sentiment in 2024? What happened to the heavyweights of the S&P 500 from the 1980s? Let's take a look at what is happening with the skewed weightings and returns in that index today. Equity volatility has been low while all the action was in bonds in CY2023. Bespoke charts the history of US rates, inflation and Fed commentary as fund managers position for lower rates. Finally, Fitch paints a picture of deterioration for Greater China.

Consumer sentiment has bounced materially off 2022 lows in most advanced economies... apart from Australia

Image

Source: @IFM_Economist, Industry Funds Management

 

Top 10 weightings in the S&P 500 in the 1980s

Source: marketsentiment.co

 

Combined weighting of Apple & Microsoft in the S&P 500 today

Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg

 

Top 10 largest weightings' contribution to S&P 500 return

Source: FactSet

 

Forward P/E ratios on Top Ten, broader S&P 500 & small cap S&P 600

 

Source: Bespoke

 

% of S&P 500 stocks that outperformed the index (through to Dec 14, 2023)

Source: Richard Bernstein Advisors

 

Volatility Index (VIX) yearly average 1990-2023

Source: @charliebilello, Creative Planning

 

US bond market volatility v equity market volatility

Source: Bloomberg

Fed Funds Rate, US CPI YoY & select commentary from Powell

Source: Bespoke

% fund managers expecting lower long-term rates

Source: Bank of America Global Fund Manager survey

 

Market expectations for Fed Funds Rate

Source: @charliebilello, Creative Planning

 

Overall trends in Greater China sector credit outlooks

Source: Fitch

January Edition


Funds operated by this manager:

Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund


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