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10k Words Equitable Investors January 2024 Will Australian consumers join the upswing in sentiment in 2024? What happened to the heavyweights of the S&P 500 from the 1980s? Let's take a look at what is happening with the skewed weightings and returns in that index today. Equity volatility has been low while all the action was in bonds in CY2023. Bespoke charts the history of US rates, inflation and Fed commentary as fund managers position for lower rates. Finally, Fitch paints a picture of deterioration for Greater China. Consumer sentiment has bounced materially off 2022 lows in most advanced economies... apart from Australia
Source: @IFM_Economist, Industry Funds Management
Top 10 weightings in the S&P 500 in the 1980s
Source: marketsentiment.co
Combined weighting of Apple & Microsoft in the S&P 500 today
Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
Top 10 largest weightings' contribution to S&P 500 return
Source: FactSet
Forward P/E ratios on Top Ten, broader S&P 500 & small cap S&P 600 Source: Bespoke
% of S&P 500 stocks that outperformed the index (through to Dec 14, 2023)
Source: Richard Bernstein Advisors
Volatility Index (VIX) yearly average 1990-2023
Source: @charliebilello, Creative Planning
US bond market volatility v equity market volatility
Source: Bloomberg Fed Funds Rate, US CPI YoY & select commentary from Powell
Source: Bespoke % fund managers expecting lower long-term rates
Source: Bank of America Global Fund Manager survey
Market expectations for Fed Funds Rate
Source: @charliebilello, Creative Planning
Overall trends in Greater China sector credit outlooks
Source: Fitch January Edition Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice - or advice in any other field. Neither the information, commentary or any opinion contained in this blog constitutes a solicitation or offer by Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (Equitable Investors) or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Nor shall any such security be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The content of this blog should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. Any decisions based on information contained on this blog are the sole responsibility of the visitor. In exchange for using this blog, the visitor agree to indemnify Equitable Investors and hold Equitable Investors, its officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents, licensors and suppliers harmless against any and all claims, losses, liability, costs and expenses (including but not limited to legal fees) arising from your use of this blog, from your violation of these Terms or from any decisions that the visitor makes based on such information. This blog is for information purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The information on this blog does not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Although this material is based upon information that Equitable Investors considers reliable and endeavours to keep current, Equitable Investors does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed on this blog may change as subsequent conditions vary. Equitable Investors does not warrant, either expressly or implied, the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained on this blog and does not warrant that the functions contained in this blog will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the blog will be free of viruses or other harmful components. Equitable Investors expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the materials on this blog and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained on the blog |
