NEWS
17 Jul 2026 - Hedge Clippings |17 July 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 17 July 2026
Two housing stories moved in opposite directions this week: buyers are paying less, and renters are paying record amounts. Bond markets are betting the RBA is done hiking even as the RBA's own language says otherwise, and in the US, a soft June CPI figure met a new Fed chair unwilling to claim victory. At the end of this issue: a first look at our FY2026 Fund Manager Review, due for release on Monday. Rents hit record highs, Sydney posts its strongest quarterly jump in four years: Domain's June Quarter Rent Report, released 9 July, showed combined capital city house rents up 2.9% for the quarter and 7.7% year on year to a national median of $700, the fastest annual pace in almost two years. Sydney recorded the sharpest move, rising from $800 to $850, a 6.3% jump that Domain's Nicola Powell called the strongest in four years. Brisbane hit a record $700. Unit rents grew just $5 for the quarter, widening the gap with houses. Regional rents held flat despite 5.3% annual growth, so this is a capital city story. Australian Finance Group's James Redman flagged the underlying risk: Negative gearing changes already apply to established property bought after 12 May 2026, even though the law does not commence until 1 July 2027. With vacancy rates near record lows, any further pullback in investor purchases of established stock, exactly what the reform intends, could squeeze rental supply further. Coupled with the ongoing effects of 3 rate rises, the government's policies aimed at cooling investor demand for established property to help first home buyers can also shrink the rental pool in the short run, since today's rental is often tomorrow's first home. Watch new build approvals and rental yields closely. Yield compression is the release valve here, not a supply fix. Bond yields fall as markets bet the hiking cycle is over: Australian government bond yields fell across the curve this week. The three year Commonwealth bond yield dropped 11 basis points to 4.36%, and the 10 year yield fell the same amount to 4.72%, per Fixed Income News Australia. Ten year inflation linked yields eased 10 basis points to 2.28%, suggesting bond investors see the RBA's tightening cycle as largely done, even though the RBA's own minutes, released the week before, kept the door open to further hikes. Against that backdrop, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter delivered a research paper on 9 July examining how central banks assess supply shocks, timely given recent oil volatility. Her remarks sit alongside the Productivity Commission's Chair Danielle Wood's view that weak business investment and slow technology adoption have capped productivity growth since the GFC, meaning less capital per worker and a lower speed limit for non-inflationary growth, an argument for caution given the inflation fight has been far from won at this point. The market and the RBA are reading the same data differently - again. Falling yields say cuts are coming, the RBA's language says hikes remain possible. Watch the 29 July CPI release as the real tie breaker, with the next RBA decision due 11 August. US inflation cools sharply to 3.5%, but Fed Chair Warsh refuses to declare victory: The US June CPI report released this week showed headline inflation falling 0.4% for the month, the largest drop since April 2020, pulling the annual rate to 3.5% from May's 4.2% and below the 3.8% consensus. The move was driven by energy, down 5.7% for the month on the US-Iran de-escalation, though the energy index remains up 15.7% year on year. Core CPI was flat for the month and eased to 2.6% year on year, also softer than expected. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pushed back on a premature victory lap, saying mission accomplished is not his view. Markets still raised expectations for a second half rate cut, and equities rallied. One month of energy driven disinflation right after a de-escalation of hostilities is not a durable trend, especially with the Iran situation currently is in danger of reversing. A single soft number does not make a cutting cycle, particularly with the supply side inflation that is backed up in the pipeline. FY2026 Fund Manager Review - one theme decided FY2026, then started giving the gains back: Fund Monitors' Annual Fund Manager Review, covering 18 peer groups and over 1,000 funds' returns to 30 June 2026, reveals a year that rewarded one theme almost completely: Every one of the ten strongest FY2026 results carries concentrated gold, resources, or high conviction long short exposure. The June quarter retraced much of that leadership, so the league tables already reflect a turning theme. Geographically, Australian large cap funds returned an average of 2.22% against an average of 11.14% for global large caps, a gap of 9% that made regional allocation the year's most consequential decision. The variance was hardly surprising given the ASX200 Total Return was 2.77% in the 12 months to June, compared with the S&P500's Total Return of 22.33%. The full review covering the 10 top performing funds in each Peer Group, along with commentary and analysis, will be available online at www.fundmonitors.com from midday next Monday. If you would like a copy emailed to you directly, please email your request to [email protected]. News | Insights Why a softer June CPI may not mean the RBA is finished | Seed Funds Management Infrastructure in focus: A hard-wearing HALO in infrastructure | Magellan Investment Partners June 2026 Performance News Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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17 Jul 2026 - Performance Report: Glenmore Australian Equities Fund
[Current Manager Report if available]
17 Jul 2026 - Why a softer June CPI may not mean the RBA is finished
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Why a softer June CPI may not mean the RBA is finished Seed Funds Management July 2026 (2-minute read time) |
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Australia's June labour-force figures will be released on Thursday, 23 July, followed by the June CPI figures on Wednesday, 29 July. Together, these releases will be closely examined for evidence as to whether inflationary pressures are easing sufficiently to allow the RBA to conclude that its monetary-policy tightening cycle is complete. A comparatively benign June inflation result should not, in our view, be taken as confirmation that the RBA has finished tightening. The June period continued to benefit from the full temporary reduction in fuel excise, but that support was partially withdrawn from 1 July and is scheduled to be removed entirely in August. We think that renewed tensions in the Middle East and higher global oil prices will add a further source of upside risk. Together, these factors could produce a noticeable rebound in petrol prices and subsequently feed into freight, aviation, food distribution and broader business costs during the September quarter. More importantly, Australia's inflation problem is not confined to energy. Persistent pressure remains across housing, rents, construction, insurance, utilities, health, education and other labour-intensive services. Weak productivity growth continues to keep unit labour costs elevated, while government spending that remains excessive relative to the economy's available capacity is adding to demand, intensifying competition for scarce labour and materials, and offsetting some of the restraint being imposed on households through higher interest rates. Against this backdrop, we believe markets should be cautious about drawing strong conclusions from a single softer CPI release. Unless underlying and non-tradables inflation show a sustained and broad-based decline, a June lull may prove temporary. We think the unemployment figures will also need to demonstrate more than a marginal softening in labour-market conditions before materially changing that assessment. The two July releases will provide important new information, but we doubt they are likely to settle the monetary-policy outlook in isolation. We believe the RBA is likely to require a continuing sequence of weaker inflation and employment data before concluding that inflation has been contained. Against this backdrop, we see the current market confidence that the rate-increase cycle is complete appears premature, particularly while underlying inflation remains persistent and several identifiable sources of renewed price pressure are still working through the economy. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Seed Funds Management Financial Income Fund - Incl Franking , Seed Financial Income Fund Active ETF (ASX:SFIF) , Seed Funds Management Financial Income Fund - Excl Franking |
17 Jul 2026 - Rethinking the competitive advantages of AI-exposed companies
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Rethinking the competitive advantages of AI-exposed companies Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 (6-minute read) Human cognitive labor was once scarce. With artificial intelligence (AI), it's abundant. Research Analyst Ian McDonald explains through three company examples that illustrate why investors need to follow where that scarcity is being relocated.For decades, investors have relied on a familiar set of labels to evaluate competitive advantages: network effects, switching costs, data moats, brand, talent. These frameworks still describe real economic forces, but they were built for a world where human knowledge work was expensive and organizational effort took time. With the advent of AI, that assumption is now breaking down. AI is not going to eliminate every competitive advantage. It is, however, forcing investors to look more carefully at what makes a moat durable, and in many cases the answer has changed. Every moat rests on some form of scarcity, which is a resource or capability that is constrained and hard to replicate. That scarcity does not disappear as technology advances; it relocates. Where it lands helps determine which companies can sustain their edge and which will have to adapt. A pattern that repeats This is not the first time technology has shifted where scarcity lives. In the late 1990s, finding information was the bottleneck. Google indexed the web and made search effectively free. Scarcity moved to attention and distribution, which is why the next generation of dominant businesses were ad networks and platforms. In the 2010s, owning and managing servers was the constraint. Cloud computing made infrastructure elastic and metered. Scarcity migrated to power, cooling, chips, and physical capacity - a shift that still underpins much of today's investment case for utilities and infrastructure. Now we are in a third cycle. AI is absorbing the bottleneck of human cognitive labor. Routine analytical work that once took a person hours can now be completed by an AI agent in minutes. The former scarcity is moving toward three areas: judgment that requires human discretion, trust in the form of verification and accepted standards, and the physical inputs required to scale AI systems. Exhibit 1: New technology finds a scarcity bottleneck in the economy, absorbs the hard part, and makes the formerly scarce resource cheap and abundant. Then scarcity moves. Wherever it goes, the competitive advantage follows.
Cheaper to do, not cheaper to check An academic paper1 published earlier this year by researchers Christian Catalini, Xiang Hui, and Jane Wu offers a useful economic framework for understanding this shift. Their core argument is that the cost to automate a task is falling rapidly, but the cost to verify the result is not falling nearly as fast. Tasks that can be clearly defined, checked by a machine, and repeated cheaply is approaching zero marginal cost. That covers much of what companies have historically paid junior analysts, entry-level engineers, and consultants to do. Verification is different: Someone must still confirm the output is correct, accept liability for it, and resolve disputes when the stakes are real. Those costs stay sticky, and in some cases rise, since more AI-generated content increases demand for content that can be trusted. That distinction between generating an output and verifying it has meaningful investment implications. If a company's core advantage rested mainly on work AI can now do cheaply, that advantage may be eroding. If it rested on trust, accepted standards, or physical scarcity, it may be getting stronger. Three outcomes: Collapsed, moved, strengthened Building on these ideas, one way to think about how AI is impacting competitive advantages is to sort companies into three categories based on what happened to their core scarcity. Scarcity collapsed. Chegg, the education technology company, built what appeared to be a classic data flywheel: More students generated more questions, which produced more answers, which attracted more students. But the real scarcity was not the database; it was the human work of taking a textbook problem, explaining it clearly, and making it searchable. Once AI made that kind of reasoning abundant, the accumulated content was no longer the advantage. In some respects, it may have even become training material for the models competing with it. This illustrates a risk worth watching: If a company's data is essentially stored human cognitive work and a model can reproduce the same utility at lower cost, the advantage can unravel quickly. Scarcity moved. eBay's moat was traditionally described as liquidity-driven network effects: More buyers attract more sellers, and vice versa. That is still partly true, but it bundles together very different layers of value. For commodity goods, AI agents could potentially search across multiple marketplaces, compare prices and reviews, and route a buyer to the best deal regardless of where they started. That layer faces pressure over time. But eBay also has categories built on items that are physical, unique, and irreplaceable, such as collectibles, vintage goods, and rare parts. These items either exist or they do not - they cannot be generated by a model. And in a world of increasing synthetic content, the ability to verify a physical item's authenticity could become more valuable. The moat hasn't disappeared; Rather, it is shifting from generic discovery toward unique supply and authentication. Scarcity strengthened. Axon, the public safety technology company, may be the clearest example in this category. AI can make transcription, tagging, report writing and evidence review cheaper. But none of that undermines Axon's core asset: an authenticated chain of custody that tells courts, prosecutors, and municipalities that a piece of evidence is real, preserved, auditable, and admissible. In a world filling up with synthetic video, synthetic audio, and AI-generated claims, that kind of trust becomes more valuable, not less. Whereas Chegg sold explanations into a world where explanation became abundant, Axon sells authenticated evidence into a world where authenticity is becoming scarcer. Look under the hood The practical implication is clear: Now is the time to check in on the state of companies' competitive advantages. AI does not need to impact next year's earnings to affect today's valuation; it only needs to shorten how long the market expects a company's advantage to last. That repricing is already underway across application software, information services, marketplaces, and platform businesses. But it is often too blunt, treating every moat in a category as equally vulnerable when the underlying scarcity differs significantly from one company to the next. The old moat vocabulary is not dead. Network effects are real. Switching costs are real. Data advantages are real. But they are a starting point, not a definitive answer. The work now is to look underneath them; identify whether the scarcity that supported the advantage has collapsed, moved, or strengthened; and judge durability accordingly. That is where our research is focused. 1 Catalini, Christian and Hui, Xiang and Wu, Jane, Some Simple Economics of AGI (February 24, 2026). MIT Sloan Research Paper, available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=6298838 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6298838 |
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Funds operated by this manager: Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund , Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund , Janus Henderson Diversified Credit Fund , Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund , Janus Henderson Tactical Income Fund , Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Cash Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Global Multi-Strategy Fund , Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity Fund , Janus Henderson Sustainable Credit Fund All opinions and estimates in this information are subject to change without notice and are the views of the author at the time of publication. Janus Henderson is not under any obligation to update this information to the extent that it is or becomes out of date or incorrect. The information herein shall not in any way constitute advice or an invitation to invest. It is solely for information purposes and subject to change without notice. This information does not purport to be a comprehensive statement or description of any markets or securities referred to within. Any references to individual securities do not constitute a securities recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Whilst Janus Henderson believe that the information is correct at the date of publication, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and no responsibility can be accepted by Janus Henderson to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. |
16 Jul 2026 - Performance Report: ASCF High Yield Fund
[Current Manager Report if available]
16 Jul 2026 - Emerging Markets: How AI exports are powering Korea's next investment opportunity
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Emerging Markets: How AI exports are powering Korea's next investment opportunity Pendal June 2026 (2 minutes read time) |
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IN ONE of the more unusual current developments in emerging markets, South Korea is experiencing a powerful export surge driven by global demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, yet the Korean won continues to trade close to its weakest levels in decades. South Korea's latest trade data confirms the strength of the current semiconductor cycle. Exports reached a record US$87.8 billion in May, rising 53 per cent year-on-year and comfortably exceeding expectations.1 Semiconductor exports increased by 169 per cent.1 The benefits are increasingly extending beyond semiconductors, with non-semiconductor exports gaining momentum and manufacturing activity reaching its strongest level in more than five years. This has transformed Korea's external accounts. The current account surplus rose from 1.8 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 6.6 per cent in 2025 as semiconductor exports recovered sharply.1 Semiconductor surge tipped to offset energy price dragThe Bank of Korea expects the semiconductor boom to more than offset the economic drag from higher energy prices stemming from tensions in the Middle East. Under normal circumstances, such a combination of strong exports, rising corporate profitability and large external surpluses would be expected to support a stronger currency. Instead, the won has continued to weaken. In our view, this reflects the dominance of capital flows over trade flows. Korean investors have become substantial buyers of overseas assets, particularly US equities. Domestic savings are increasingly being deployed overseas, while a growing share of the foreign currency revenues generated by Korean exporters are being retained offshore rather than repatriated and converted into won. As a result, sizeable trade surpluses have coincided with persistent capital outflows. Vast dollar earnings not being converted back to Korean wonThe result is the emergence of "DRAM dollars", analogous to the petrodollars generated by major energy exporters. Korea's semiconductor sector is generating vast dollar earnings, but an increasing share of those proceeds is not being converted back into won. At the same time, strong performance in overseas equity markets and a weaker won have reinforced the attractiveness of foreign assets for domestic investors, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of capital outflows. The won is cheap, but not outrageously so. In its 2025 External Sector Report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that Korea's external position in 2024 was broadly consistent with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. In particular, the IMF noted Korea's need to run a large current account surplus in order "to build precautionary savings to meet aging-related needs and an orderly deleveraging of private debt".2 Since that assessment, the real effective exchange rate has fallen by a further 8 per cent, while semiconductor exports and current account dynamics have strengthened. How we are positioningThe portfolio remains substantially exposed to the beneficiaries of the AI investment cycle, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, both directly and indirectly. We remain heavily underweight the rest of the Korean market, where the transmission of semiconductor success into broader earnings growth is less certain. We also remain underweight the won given the export exposure already embedded within our holdings. Nevertheless, the combination of a large current account surplus, strong export momentum and increasingly attractive valuation suggests that the medium-term outlook for the Korean currency is becoming progressively more favourable. Sources: 1Bloomberg 2IMF |
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Funds operated by this manager: Pendal MicroCap Opportunities Fund , Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Class R , Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund , Pendal Horizon Sustainable Australian Share Fund , Regnan Credit Impact Trust Fund , Pendal Sustainable Australian Share Fund , Pendal Sustainable Balanced Fund - Class R , Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund , Pendal Property Securities Fund |
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This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at December 8, 2021. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund (Fund) ARSN: 623 987 968. A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient's personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com |
15 Jul 2026 - Performance Report: Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund
[Current Manager Report if available]
15 Jul 2026 - Emerging markets income equity: the billion-dollar questions
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Emerging markets income equity: the billion-dollar questions abrdn June 2026 (Reading time: 5 Mins) In a market often defined by volatility and headlines, what actually drives sustainable income in emerging markets (EM)? Reflecting on the evolution of our EM income equity strategy -- which we have managed since 2012 -- and the recent milestone of the latest investment vehicle launched in 2024 topping US$1 billion in assets, lead portfolio manager Matt Williams tackles nine key questions about the drivers of outcomes, the enduring principles behind the approach and the reasons why the outlook for EM remains compelling. What defines your approach to managing an EM income equity strategy?Our starting point is simple: markets regularly misprice company fundamentals. We aim to identify those gaps by forming our own long-term view of cash flows, earnings, and returns, and comparing that with what is already reflected in valuations. Looking back, what moments or themes stand out most?The rapid emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has been a defining theme. Rather than focusing solely on companies building AI systems, we have increasingly targeted those helping to monetise the technology through real-world applications --such as wireless connectivity chipmakers, semiconductor designers and memory manufacturers. What aspects of the investment philosophy have remained constant since strategy launch and why do they still matter?Our philosophy has not changed. We believe cash flow gives one of the clearest and most reliable indicators of business quality, which is why we describe our approach as 'follow the cash flow'. It helps us test management narratives and focus on companies with sustainable fundamentals. Where has the approach evolved as the strategy has matured?While the underlying philosophy has remained consistent, the framework around it has evolved over time. We introduced a pod-based structure almost a decade ago to reinforce accountability and improve portfolio construction discipline. What are the key lessons from managing an EM income strategy across different market environments?One key lesson is the value of balance. The approach combines dividend-growth businesses with high-dividend companies, rather than relying on one style. That helps deliver a more resilient return profile across the cycle. What role has income played in shaping returns and resilience since the strategy's launch?Income has contributed to the overall performance of the strategy since its inception in 2012. We seek to provide a yield that is typically higher than the benchmark. Importantly, income also helps smooth the return profile. It can provide a component of total return, while longer-term investments play out. We believe that income is generated by companies with strong cash flows and disciplined capital allocation, and that it can be sustained rather than cyclical. How do investors typically use EM income strategies in portfolios and has that changed over time?Investors can use EM income equity strategies as a core EM allocation, complemented by more thematic or higher-growth satellite exposures. This reflects demand for a more balanced return profile within what can be a volatile asset class. What investor feedback has resonated most as the strategy has grown?Investors consistently highlight the discipline and repeatability of the approach. They also value the scale of our research platform, with around 50 investment professionals across seven global locations providing local insight and access to management teams. Looking ahead, where do you see the most compelling opportunities and the key risks?Despite recent geopolitical tensions, we remain constructive on emerging markets. The structural drivers behind the current cycle are intact, including rising global capital investment, the build-out of data centre infrastructure, increased defence spending, decarbonisation, and supply-chain diversification. Emerging markets are playing a central role in many of these areas. Final thoughtsThe strength of our approach lies in its consistency, focus on cash flow, and balanced portfolio construction. As EM continues to evolve, maintaining this discipline remains central to how we seek to navigate opportunities and risks over the long term.
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Funds operated by this manager: abrdn Sustainable Asian Opportunities Fund , abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Fund , abrdn Sustainable International Equities Fund , abrdn Global Corporate Bond Fund (Class A) |
14 Jul 2026 - Performance Report: Insync Global Capital Aware Fund
[Current Manager Report if available]
14 Jul 2026 - New Funds on Fundmonitors.com
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New Funds on FundMonitors.com |
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Below are some of the funds we've recently added to our database. Follow the links to view each fund's profile, where you'll have access to their offer documents, monthly reports, historical returns, performance analytics, rankings, research, platform availability, and news & insights. |
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| VanEck Australian Subordinated Debt ETF (ASX:SUBD) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Adaptive Alpha Research Starling Fund | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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