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10k Words Equitable Investors September 2023 Earnings expectations dropped post the August reporting season on the ASX; global fund flows have been subdued - as have tech sector buyouts and SPACs. While the number of companies talking about recession has receded, rates are still in focus with the inflation-adjusted treasury yield spiking - a move not reflected in the S&P 500 valuation relative to a Credit Suisse model. US mortgage rates have the greatest spread on treasuries in decades. Australians are seeing their rates climb too and are feeling the stress - which ties back into the earnings downgrades for consumer stocks. China equity outflows, by the way, have been notable based on the actions of Hong Kong investors. ASX 100 consensus estimates - changes over past month & current metrics
Source: Equitable Investors, Koyfin ASX "FIT" micro-to-mid cap consensus estimates - changes over past month & current metrics
Source: Equitable Investors, Koyfin Flows from global investors into Developed Markets and Emerging Markets funds, by calendar year Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Active and passive fund flows into Developed Markets and Emerging Markets funds
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2023 Tech buyouts
Source: tomtunguz.com No. of SPACs in the US over past decade
Source: Koyfin No. of S&P 500 companies citing "recession" on earnings calls Source: FactSet Global central bank policy rates
Source: @CharlieBilello 10-year TIPS yield
Source: @Scutty Credit Suisse model for forward PE v actual for S&P 500 Source: Credit Suisse US mortgage rate v. 30 year treasury yield Source: Crescat Capital Australian fixed housing interest rates - 3-year maturity
Source: RBA Australian mortgage stress - owner-occupied mortgage holders Source: Roy Morgan Impact of higher rate by age (change in savings & spending year-on-year) Source: CBA FY23 Results Presentation - released August 9, 2023 Chinese equity outflows by HK-based investors Source: Bloomberg, Zero Hedge September Edition Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice - or advice in any other field. Neither the information, commentary or any opinion contained in this blog constitutes a solicitation or offer by Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (Equitable Investors) or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Nor shall any such security be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The content of this blog should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. Any decisions based on information contained on this blog are the sole responsibility of the visitor. In exchange for using this blog, the visitor agree to indemnify Equitable Investors and hold Equitable Investors, its officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents, licensors and suppliers harmless against any and all claims, losses, liability, costs and expenses (including but not limited to legal fees) arising from your use of this blog, from your violation of these Terms or from any decisions that the visitor makes based on such information. This blog is for information purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The information on this blog does not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Although this material is based upon information that Equitable Investors considers reliable and endeavours to keep current, Equitable Investors does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed on this blog may change as subsequent conditions vary. Equitable Investors does not warrant, either expressly or implied, the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained on this blog and does not warrant that the functions contained in this blog will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the blog will be free of viruses or other harmful components. Equitable Investors expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the materials on this blog and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained on the blog |
