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19 Sep 2023 - 10k Words | September 2023

By: Equitable Investors

10k Words

Equitable Investors

September 2023

Earnings expectations dropped post the August reporting season on the ASX; global fund flows have been subdued - as have tech sector buyouts and SPACs. While the number of companies talking about recession has receded, rates are still in focus with the inflation-adjusted treasury yield spiking - a move not reflected in the S&P 500 valuation relative to a Credit Suisse model. US mortgage rates have the greatest spread on treasuries in decades. Australians are seeing their rates climb too and are feeling the stress - which ties back into the earnings downgrades for consumer stocks. China equity outflows, by the way, have been notable based on the actions of Hong Kong investors.

ASX 100 consensus estimates - changes over past month & current metrics

Source: Equitable Investors, Koyfin

ASX "FIT" micro-to-mid cap consensus estimates - changes over past month & current metrics

Source: Equitable Investors, Koyfin

Flows from global investors into Developed Markets and Emerging Markets funds, by calendar year


Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Active and passive fund flows into Developed Markets and Emerging Markets funds

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2023 Tech buyouts


No. of SPACs in the US over past decade

Source: Koyfin

No. of S&P 500 companies citing "recession" on earnings calls


Source: FactSet

Global central bank policy rates

Source: @CharlieBilello

10-year TIPS yield


Source: @Scutty

Credit Suisse model for forward PE v actual for S&P 500


Source: Credit Suisse

US mortgage rate v. 30 year treasury yield


Source: Crescat Capital

Australian fixed housing interest rates - 3-year maturity

Source: RBA

Australian mortgage stress - owner-occupied mortgage holders


Source: Roy Morgan

Impact of higher rate by age (change in savings & spending year-on-year)


Source: CBA FY23 Results Presentation - released August 9, 2023

Chinese equity outflows by HK-based investors


Source: Bloomberg, Zero Hedge

September Edition

Funds operated by this manager:

Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund


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