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10k Words Equitable Investors February 2023 The "US equity market performance this year can broadly be characterised as a dash for trash," Bespoke declared on Feb 3. Our own analysis of ASX micro-to-mids shows a similar trend - CY2022 losers are now the winners, as are stocks on higher multiples. A case for higher cash rates was charted by Charles Schwab even as Moody's showed inflation is slowing in some countries. FactSet calculated that the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the first month of the first quarter was larger than the 5, 10 and 20 year averages. This follows S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings falling 13% year-over-year, as Creative Planning charted. Behind the earnings, JP Morgan found the strongest consensus for a US recession on record. Folkelore Ventures published data on the tough year that was 2022 for Australian VC. In the tech sector we have Apple & Microsoft trading above their 10-year average EV/EBITDA multiples while Google/Alphabet and Meta/Facebook are now below average. JP Morgan reckons households have been deploying into equity and bond funds in early 2023 after underinvesting in 2022. Crypto assets lost $US1.5 trillion in capitalisation says ARK. Finally, we take a look at corruption hot spots via Statista. Russell 1000 Decile Analysis: CY2023-to-date % change
Source: Bespoke
ASX Micro-to-Mids - "Financial, Industrial & Technology" (FIT) factor performance in CY2023-to-date
Source: Equitable Investors Proxy Fed Funds Rate
Source: Charles Schwab Year-on-year inflation is slowing in some countries
Source: Moody's Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS: 1st month of quarter
Source: FactSet
S&P 500 As Reported (GAAP) EPS Growth (Year-on-Year %)
Source: Creative Planning. @CharlieBilello Survey of Professional Forecasters US Recession Probability
Source: Pitchbook, Morningstar, @macroalf Australian Venture Capital raisings by number and amount
Source: Cut Through Venture, Folkelore Ventures Forward EV/EVITDA multiples over 10 years for tech leaders
Source: TIKR, Equitable Investors Global equity & bond fund flows Source: JP Morgan ~$US1.5 trillion wiped out in crypto market capitalisation in 2022
Source: ARK Investment Management Perceived public sector corruption in 2022
Source: Statista, Transparency International February Edition Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice - or advice in any other field. Neither the information, commentary or any opinion contained in this blog constitutes a solicitation or offer by Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (Equitable Investors) or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Nor shall any such security be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The content of this blog should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. Any decisions based on information contained on this blog are the sole responsibility of the visitor. In exchange for using this blog, the visitor agree to indemnify Equitable Investors and hold Equitable Investors, its officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents, licensors and suppliers harmless against any and all claims, losses, liability, costs and expenses (including but not limited to legal fees) arising from your use of this blog, from your violation of these Terms or from any decisions that the visitor makes based on such information. This blog is for information purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The information on this blog does not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Although this material is based upon information that Equitable Investors considers reliable and endeavours to keep current, Equitable Investors does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed on this blog may change as subsequent conditions vary. Equitable Investors does not warrant, either expressly or implied, the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained on this blog and does not warrant that the functions contained in this blog will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the blog will be free of viruses or other harmful components. Equitable Investors expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the materials on this blog and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained on the blog |
