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24 Jan 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 24 January 2025

By: FundMonitors.com

    

Hedge Clippings | 24 January 2025

Five days in from Trump's inauguration, and no one is left guessing on the question of whether he's as committed in office as his promises were on the campaign trail. With over 200 executive orders (which bypass Congress) reportedly signed since his first day in office, he's set a record and if he keeps going, he'll be approaching a record for his entire term. By comparison, the previous 10 US Presidents (including Trump's first term when he signed a modest 220) only signed an average of 266 executive orders in their entire terms. Maybe he's just trying to break his own record?

It has certainly been a whirlwind start, possibly a reflection that this time he expected to win, whereas in 2016 he (and many others) believed that was unthinkable. One thing to remember about Trump, irrespective of whether you think he's the reincarnation of the Messiah, or the devil, is to expect both the expected, and the unexpected, often on the same day, and possibly the same conversation. Frequently the difficulty is sorting his thought bubbles from firm policy - think Greenland for instance. It was too cold in Washington to hold his inauguration out in the open, but maybe his climate change policies will fix that problem, and also turn Greenland... well green, instead of white?

On a more serious note, the world is yet to really understand how his major policy initiatives will play out on the world stage, or who outside America will be the beneficiaries - if any. His unashamedly America First policy, particularly around tariffs and border protection, both trade and immigration, are both highly contentious and depending on one's views, or where you live, or your economic position, likely to result in magnificence, or mayhem. As the world's most powerful man, and as leader of the largest economy there doesn't appear to be any other leader or country, apart from Denmark who is miffed about his Greenland stance, or Panama who are prepared to call him out.

The remainder, possibly with the exception of Canada's outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, seem to be holding their tongues, and possibly their collective breaths.

From Australia's perspective, the same applies, with our ambassador Kevin Rudd, along with Penny Wong, no doubt working their diplomatic skills for all they're worth. Trump has a vindictive streak and won't forget Kevin 07's previous remarks, but to what extent we're friend or foe, winners or losers, remains to be seen. When push comes to shove, our military alliance and Pine Gap are, to the horror of the Greens, likely to help.

Turning to fund performances, both December's results and those for the full 12 months of 2024, are summarised below.

Performance data in the 12 months to December 2024 across all 900 funds in FundMonitors' database, which covers equities, fixed income, property, infrastructure, alternatives, and digital assets, highlights the mix of outcomes and the importance of careful research across both asset class and fund selection. In the short term - December - global and Asia-focused equity categories delivered mostly positive returns: Leading the way was Equity Long - Asia, up 3.32%, while Equity Long - Large Cap - Global gained 1.24% and Equity Long - Small/Mid Cap - Global added a modest 0.07%. Meanwhile, Australian equities struggled, with Equity Long - Small/Mid Cap - Australia falling 1.58% and Equity Long - Large Cap - Australia down 2.92%. Fixed income categories made slight gains, while property (-3.53%) and infrastructure (-2.57%) experienced declines. The table below shows the highest and lowest returns seen within each broad peer group and across the entire database, both during the month of December 2024 and across the full calendar year.

Looking at longer-term performance data paints a brighter picture for 2024. Global equities posted standout 12-month returns, with the All Countries World Index (AUD) soaring 29.68%, while the global Equity Long - Large Cap and Equity Long - Small/Mid Cap peer groups delivered 22.01% and 22.8% respectively. Australian small/mid cap funds saw solid returns as well, albeit not as significant as those seen among their global equity counterparts, gaining 13.87% and edging ahead of the ASX200's 11.44%, while Australian large cap funds delivered 10.48%.

In Fixed income, the various peer groups also produced positive results over the year, with hybrid credit returning 10.14% and the Bonds, Credit and Debt peer groups returning 4.82%, 7.26% and 7.79% respectively, while the broader bond market was up 2.5%. Property saw a slight dip of -0.11%, while infrastructure rose 9.67% despite lagging behind the S&P Global Infrastructure Index's 28.63% surge.

The top-performing funds over the 12 months to December showcased impressive numbers across all categories. Among Australian equity funds, returns of the top 10 performers ranged from 29.74% to 43.27%, topped by the LHC Capital High Conviction Fund. In global and Asian equities, top performers achieved 45.09% to 109.11%, with the Pengana High Conviction Equities Fund taking first place. Property and infrastructure funds ranged from 17.68% to 34.36%, with Delft Partners Global Infrastructure Strategy claiming the top spot. Fixed income funds delivered between 11.06% and 25.83%, with the Regal Partners Private Fund leading the pack. Alternatives, digital assets, and multi-sector funds posted the broadest range, from 31% to an astonishing 159.56%, with the Digital Income Fund (Bitcoin Index Class) achieving the highest one-year figure.

Across all 900 funds Digital Assets stole the show, with some cryptocurrency funds delivering gains of over 70%, albeit with significant volatility. The Digital Income Fund (Bitcoin Index Class)'s impressive 1-year return of 159.56% placed first not only within its peer group but across the entire database.

Our full 2024 Analysis and Performance Review will be available next week, including Top Ten listings.

Finally, we wish all our readers a Happy Australia Day on Sunday, and a welcome recovery day on Monday's Public Holiday.


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