Hedge Clippings | 11 October 2024
November 5th is shaping up as an important date, not only in the local calendar, but globally as well, when Americans finally go to the polls. While all the focus has been on the race for the White House, elections for both the Senate and the House of Representatives take place on the same day. Given the rancorous state of US politics, whoever ends up in the White House may not enjoy a smooth administration if they don't control both houses of Congress as well. And whichever candidate wins the Oval Office, there's a strong chance they won't control the other two houses.
As for the Presidency, it seems it's still neck and neck, and either candidate's to lose. Given the precarious and uncertain nature of world politics, that's just another level of uncertainty. If nothing else, Trump - if he makes it - is likely to be predictably unpredictable. Harris meanwhile seems likely to be more predictable, but unproven. Maybe given that choice, it is no wonder it's an even money race?
Also on November 5th the RBA announces the result of its two day meeting, and with it the outside chance of a rate cut. All the indications are that they won't budge from their current determination to be "resolute" in fighting inflation, while maintaining full employment. However, the RBA will have plenty of new data to work on, as prior to their meeting the ABS is due to release a slew of statistics, including Labour Force (24/10), Payroll (24/10), GDP (25/10), CPI (30/10), Retails Trade (31/10) and finally PPI (1/11). A rate cut, while unlikely at this stage, is not out of the question if the numbers fall the right (or should that be wrong) way.
Of course, November 5th also happens to be the first Tuesday in November when a certain horse race takes the nation's attention. Take your pick where to focus, but at least you'll have 30 minutes after the RBA's announcement to get your cup bets on, and a good 12 to 24 hours (at least) until there's a result in the USA.
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