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Printed: 13 October 2024 4:20 PM

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27 Sep 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 27 September 2024

By: FundMonitors.com

    

Hedge Clippings | 27 September 2024

On the face of it, this week's inflation figure of 2.7% for the 12 months to August was good news, and within the RBA's target band of 2-3%. However, as always, the devil was in the detail.

Firstly, the numbers were cushioned by a reduction in electricity costs of 17.9% thanks to State (WA, Queensland, and Tasmania) and Federal government hand-outs, which will not recur. Secondly, excluding volatile items such as fruit & veg, and fuel, the figure rose to 3.0%. Meanwhile the annual trimmed mean - also excluding the fall in electricity and fuel of -7.6% was higher still at 3.4%. Finally accommodation costs have remained high, with new dwellings up 5.1% and rental prices up 6.8%, both of which have been stubbornly high for over 12 months.

As such, the RBA declined to follow the US Fed's example and cut rates (although noting these are still above Australia's number of 4.35%), with the board's statement using now familiar terminology such as "inflation remains above target and is proving persistent", plus "the outlook remains highly uncertain" and "returning inflation to target is the priority" to reinforce their point.

With no RBA meeting next month, and the next CPI results from the ABS not due until October 30th, the market's main pre-occupation will be this weekend's AFL Grand Final, followed by the Rugby League the following weekend. Meanwhile, the Bledisloe Cup remains an elusive goal for yet another year.


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