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Hedge Clippings | 19 July 2024 Last week's Hedge Clippings' commentary (and the one before that) dealt almost exclusively with global politics and elections, and inevitably a focus on the US. As much as we'd like to think we were ahead of the curve, we can't claim access to any crystal ball, and the rest, as they say, is history. However, when it comes to US Presidents, a combination of history - 15 attempted assassinations since 1835, four successful - plus the polarising nature of the current campaign, one shouldn't really be surprised. Maybe those statistics give the answer to the question we've frequently asked: "How come in a country of 330 million, the only two candidates they can find are Trump and Biden"? Maybe not many of them like the odds! As we write, Joe Biden, seemingly one of a dwindling number of Democrats who think he should stand, is still in the race. Trump, rather than being deterred, is emboldened, as are his MAGA supporters as Trump is speaking at his party's nomination. A cynic would suggest he's milking last weekend's event for all it's worth among the Republican faithful, but what else would you expect? You have to give him points for presentation. Less excited about the potential for Trump's return would be Ukaine's Volodomyr Zelensky, Taiwan's Lai Ching Te, and quite possibly China's Xi Jinping, although the latter may think his task of enveloping Taiwan might now be easier. If nothing else, the next four years will be interesting. Enough of that! On to the economy... US inflation has fallen such that Fed Chair Powell has hinted they'll start cutting rates later this year, while at the same time the potential for the RBA to raise Australian rates at their upcoming August meeting is likely to be dependent on CPI data due on 31 July. The RBA's narrow path seems to be getting narrower, as inflation stays high, keeping interest rates high, which in turn have slowed Australia's two speed economy to a crawl. Far from a narrow path, the risk is we reach a tipping point. News & Insights 10k Words | July | Equitable Investors June 2024 Performance News Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund |
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