Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update February
Australian Secure Capital Fund
In a sign of the property market beginning to stabilise, February saw the price of dwelling values fall by just 0.1% across the nation. This is the smallest month-to-month decline since mid-2022 and the first time the monthly decline was less than 1% in almost 12 months, according to CoreLogic's National Home Value Index.
Property in Sydney recorded growth of 0.3% for the month, whilst Perth (-0.10%), Adelaide (-0.20%) and Darwin (-0.30%) all recorded minor reductions. Brisbane (-0.40%), Melbourne (-0.40%) and Canberra (-0.50%) also recorded smaller monthly falls than in recent months, with only Hobart (-1.4%) recording a reduction of more than 1%, with all capital cities still recording values above pre-pandemic levels.
New listing volume remains low, with 24,658 listings over the 4 weeks ending February 26, 17% below that of 2022 and 11.9% below the 5-year average. The last weekend of February recorded the highest number of auctions for the year (2,393), which was up 29.6% on the previous week (1,846); however this was still 29.3% lower than the same weekend last year (3,386). This trend is likely to continue until such a time that interest rates stabilise and confidence returns.
Whilst volumes are down, clearance rates are relatively strong, with Adelaide leading the way with an 88.6% clearance rate (83.8% last year), contributing to a national average of 69.7% (70.9% last year). The clearance rates for Sydney and Melbourne were also strong, recording 71.8% (72.6% last year) and 68.2% (67.6% last year), respectively. Brisbane's clearance rate was slightly weaker at 64.8% (70.6% last year) as was Canberra with 59.8% (74.4% last year).
We believe prices should start to stabilise from here due to a fundamental under-supply of housing stock. The easing of the rate in which prices are declining is likely due to this lack of supply, and with many economists forecasting that we are nearing the end of the rate rise cycle, buyer demand is likely to increase through the second half of the year and into 2024 as confidence returns.
Funds operated by this manager:
ASCF High Yield Fund, ASCF Premium Capital Fund, ASCF Select Income Fund