(As a slight aside, and at the risk of being accused of being pedantic (again), the above graph sourced from the RBA's website also looks a little out of date, still showing last month's rate of 2.85%.)
Unless of course, you're one of the unfortunate ones who listened to Philip Lowe's statement in February/March 2021 that "The central scenario remains that the conditions for a lift in the cash rate will not be met until 2024." And in case anyone thought that was a one off, the RBA's view was held or repeated throughout 2021 and well into 2022.
Let's follow some of the subsequent "non" advice from Australia's most senior banker:
In November 2021, he conceded "genuine uncertainty as to the timing of future adjustments in the cash rate" and that a pre-2024 rate rise was "possible". He continued to dismiss, however, the fact that the market was pricing in a series of rate rises in 2022 as "a complete overreaction" and maintained it was "still entirely possible that the cash rate will remain at its current level until 2024″.
In February this year (10 months is a long time in the real world) following its first board meeting of the year, the RBA board kept the official cash rate at a record low of 0.1 per cent. As a slight hint - probably lost on the average punter taking out a mortgage, however, it did terminate it $350 billion pandemic bond buying program, citing significant improvements in the jobless rate and the broader strength of the economy.
The RBA also up its inflation forecasts following a surprisingly strong December 2021 quarter, at that time expecting underlying inflation to peak at 3.25 per cent later in 2022, before moderating back to 2.75% in 2023. But despite currently being at the mid-point of the RBA's 2 to 3 per cent target band and set to push higher for the first time in almost a decade, Governor Philip Lowe said the conditions for rate rises were not yet in place: "While inflation has picked up, it is too early to conclude it is sustainably within the target band.".