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Megatrends drive sustainable growth Insync Fund Managers May 2022 Megatrends enable us to locate the sustainable outsized market growth opportunity stock hunting-grounds (as well as help us avoid those that will dwindle). They are the 'fuel' to quality company's sustainable growth earnings. We are presently in the midst of one of the most disruptive innovation cycles in technological history. Thus, we resist the temptation of concerning ourselves with near term timing based 'market rotations' and changes in 'sentiment'. These distractions will otherwise prevent us from generating outsized returns in the years ahead. PWC consulting estimates that global GDP will be up to 14% higher in 2030 as a result of the accelerating development and take-up of AI. The equivalent of an additional $15.7 trillion USD.
Internet of people v Internet of Things Our lives are already being impacted. In the past 5 years alone, almost all aspects of how we work and how we live - from retail to manufacturing to healthcare - have become increasingly digitised. The internet and mobile technologies drove the first wave of digital, known as the 'Internet of People'. Analysis carried out by PwC's AI specialists anticipate that the data generated from the Internet of Things (IoT) will outstrip the data generated by the Internet of People many times over. This is already resulting in standardisation, which naturally leads to task automation and the automatic personalisation of products and services - setting off the next wave of digital progress. AI exploits digitised data from people and things to automate and assist in what we do today, how we make decisions and how we find new ways of doing things that we've not imagined before.
From one of the all-time ice hockey greats this very apt thought describes the way Insync frames its investment thinking. Despite the market's sentiment shift on the rotation trade, Insync's focus is on where the world is moving to. Data continues to show an acceleration in spending on pets, the rollout of 5G, health & wellness, and digital transformation Major corporates expect elevated growth in technology to both accelerate and persist for the foreseeable future (according to a Morgan Stanley survey), in areas such as cloud computing, digital transformation and artificial intelligence. CIO intentions indicate that they expect to increase IT spend as a percentage of revenue over the next three years than they did pre-pandemic. The percentage of CIOs planning to increase spend versus those planning to decrease spend is known as the up-to-down ratio. It rose to 9.0, nearly 6x the pre-pandemic 2019 average. The best way to invest in a megatrend isn't always the obvious way!
Semiconductors are driving the digital transformation of the world. Covid19 has had a profound impact on so many industries but one of the key areas everyone has started to care about are silicon chips. This became abundantly clear when new car purchases were dramatically delayed because of chip supply chain shortages. Semiconductor chip usefulness has gone further than any other technology in connecting the world. The companies that produce them enables us to do pretty much everything, from the smartphones in our pockets to the vast datacentres powering the internet, from electric scooters and cars to hypersonic aircraft, and pacemakers to weather-predicting supercomputers. Their manufacturing requires a high level of specialist technological know-how as it is a highly expensive, complex and a long process. It typically takes 3 months and 700 different steps to cover a silicon wafer with intricate etchings forming billions of transistors (microscopic switches that control electric currents and allow the chip to perform tasks).
Semiconductor chips lay at the heart of the exponential transition that we're going to experience in computing over the next 5-15 years. More than we have ever witnessed before, and it will continue to grow exponentially. For example, AI applications process vast volumes of data-about 80 Exabytes pa today. This is projected to increase to 845 Exabytes by 2025. One Exabyte = One quintillion bytes = one thousand quadrillion bytes. Truly eye-watering numbers. Insync's investments in the most profitable semiconductor companies enable investors to participate in 3 of the 16 enduring megatrends: video gaming, workplace automation and enterprise digitisation. Their earnings growth will continue to compound at high rates with the resulting share price growth following. This is a consistent feature of the 29 companies in the portfolio. Patience will reward. Funds operated by this manager: Insync Global Capital Aware Fund, Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Disclaimer |
